Active Predictions — Showing 20 of 20
Pending
"China will publicly demonstrate a 500+ autonomous drone swarm by end of 2026."
Pending
"At least 3 NATO nations will deploy autonomous ground robots in active operational roles by December 2026."
Pending
"The first confirmed AI-on-AI engagement — an autonomous system targeting another autonomous system — will occur in the Ukraine theater by end of 2026."
Pending
"Anduril Industries will file for IPO or pursue a direct listing by Q2 2027."
Pending
"A confirmed autonomous drone strike without documented human authorization will be publicly attributed during US-Iran theater operations by mid-2026."
Pending
"Global defense AI spending will exceed $20 billion USD in calendar year 2026."
Pending
"Shield AI will secure at least one single contract valued above $1 billion by end of 2026."
Pending
"Russia will deploy Lancet-4 loitering munitions with full autonomous target selection capability in active operations by Q4 2026."
Pending
"A major AI weapons ethics incident — involving civilian casualties or a documented autonomous misidentification — will dominate international news coverage for at least one week in 2026."
Pending
"At least one nation-state will formally withdraw from or suspend participation in LAWS (Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems) negotiations at the CCW in 2026."
Pending
"Turkey will complete export delivery or sign binding contracts to deliver the Kizilelma UCAV to at least 2 foreign customers by end of 2026."
Pending
"The US Air Force CCA (Collaborative Combat Aircraft) program will select exactly 2 prime contractors for low-rate initial production contracts by mid-2027."
Pending
"Iran will publicly demonstrate or acknowledge an indigenous AI-guided anti-ship missile capability with onboard target discrimination by end of 2026."
Pending
"Palantir Technologies defense segment revenue will exceed $2 billion USD annually as reported in Q4 2026 earnings."
Pending
"India will conduct its first officially announced autonomous drone swarm test with 100+ coordinated units by end of 2027."
Pending
"At least 5 civilian casualties will be publicly and credibly attributed to an autonomous weapon system malfunction or misidentification in 2026."
Pending
"Saudi Arabia will formally announce an indigenous armed drone program with at least one domestically developed prototype publicly unveiled by end of 2026."
Pending
"Houthi forces will deploy AI-guided (non-GPS, computer vision or radar-seeker) anti-ship weapons against Red Sea commercial or military vessels by mid-2026."
Pending
"A deepfake audio or video will be used in a confirmed military deception operation — verified by independent OSINT analysis — by end of 2026."
Pending
"SpaceX will secure its first publicly disclosed classified autonomous space defense contract — separate from existing Starlink/Starshield — by end of 2027."
Prediction Methodology
All predictions are derived through structured OSINT analysis. Each forecast follows a repeatable process designed to maximize falsifiability and minimize confirmation bias. We state our reasoning publicly so it can be challenged.
01 — OSINT ANALYSIS
Source Collection
Predictions begin with multi-source collection: government budget documents, patent filings, academic research, arms trade databases, and defense industry filings. Minimum 2 independent sources required for any factual claim underpinning a forecast.
02 — TREND EXTRAPOLATION
Trajectory Modeling
Historical capability development rates, procurement timelines, and budget trajectories are used to project forward. We distinguish between technology readiness level (TRL) advancement and operational deployment — they are not the same.
03 — CAPABILITY ASSESSMENT
Technical Feasibility
Each prediction is bounded by known technical constraints. We reference published academic benchmarks, patent claims, and demonstrated performance data. Predictions beyond demonstrated capability thresholds carry lower confidence scores.
04 — CONFIDENCE SCORING
Probabilistic Framing
Confidence scores represent estimated probability of the stated event occurring by the stated deadline. High (75%+): strong trend evidence. Medium (50-74%): plausible but uncertain. Low (below 50%): possible but dependent on multiple contingencies.
05 — PUBLIC ACCOUNTABILITY
Falsifiability Requirement
Every prediction includes a specific, dated, falsifiable statement. Vague predictions that cannot be confirmed or denied are rejected. When evidence resolves a prediction — in either direction — we update the record promptly and publicly.
06 — BIAS ACKNOWLEDGMENT
Limitations
Our analysis reflects publicly available information. Classified developments may contradict our forecasts. We have no access to intelligence community assessments. Geographic and linguistic limitations may affect source coverage for non-English primary sources.